`This is not a
Saigon Moment'.
Thus spoke Mr.
Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State of the United States of America reacting to
the events that happened at Kabul Airport.
Mr. Blinken is right. It is
not a 'Saigon Moment', it is much more than that.
USA was resoundingly defeated by Vietnamese in late seventies.
When Vietnamese Communist Combatants reached the outskirts of Saigon, the Capital of the then South Vietnam, there was a
huge scramble to board the sorties of Army Helicopters landing on the roof of
Us Embassy. The photos of this event were splashed across front pages almost
all newspapers & magazines in the world.
In contrast in Afghanistan USA was not
defeated by Taliban. It extricated itself from quagmire of a stalemated war by
striking a deal and willingly handed over power to the Taliban. Perhaps the difference
is because USA had fought with Vietnamese due to ideological opposition to
Communism during the Cold War era, but fight with Taliban or for that matter
with Al Queda has never been ideological for USA. If Osama bin Laden had not
attacked USA mainland the Americans would have never sent its forces in
Afghanistan.
USA has always
taken a position that it will react to any event across the world and send its
forces, if it's 'Way of Life' is threatened. This maxim was reiterated by
President George bush after the 9/11 attack. Of course besides this aim of
protecting `American Way of Life`, USA for strategic reasons dislodged many Governments
in Latin America, Asia & Africa; assassinated many leaders, staged coups
and took all these actions in the name of `Defending Democracy`. Thousands of innocent
people were killed. Today Iran has become a hardline Shia Islamic theocracy because USA dislodged in early
fifties the duly democratically elected Mosadegh Govt for Iranian oil and
installed a tyrannical Shah Reza Pehalvi. President Bush invaded Iraq on the
completely false pretext of Saddam Hussein having `Weapons of Mass Destruction`
and completely destabilized entire West Asia, which gave rise to ISIS and its
depredations.
Many more such
instances can be cited, but to cot the story short, it must be emphasised that
this did not happen in Afghanistan.
There was a verbal understanding between USA
& Taliban at Doha Talks. This deal was brokered by Zalmy Khalidzad
from USA and Mulla Baradar from Taliban. This happened during Trump Presidency
and it was implemented fully by Biden Administration.
Therefore the
talk about `Saigon Moment` & comparison with Vietnam War is irrelevant and
totally misplaced.
The main points
of USA—Taliban unwritten understanding were to abandon President Ashraf Ghani, which
has already happened. President Ghani has fled to Tajikistan. In fact Soviet
diplomats in Kabul told the media that Ghani wanted to carry with him so many
cartons of money that they could not fit into the Helicopter and some cartons
of cash were left on the tarmac of Kabul Airport. The next part of the
understanding was Abdullah Abdullah, who styled himself as CEO of Afghanistan,
ceasing to hold office, but would be retained as a negotiator. The Govt system
will not be totally upset and the Taliban will except some representation by other
ethnic and ideological groups. There will be no fighting for Kabul and that the
Taliban will be given access to setup the new government.
All these things
have already happened. Mulla Baradar has been appointed as a President and
Abdullah Abdullah & former President Hanid Karzai are negotiating with
Taliban and other ethnic groups to form an interim administration.
There is no
fighting in and around Kabul. Then why people are scared and scrambling to
leave Afghanistan, which led to the chaotic scenes at Kabul Airport? This is
because no afghan is ready to believe what Taliban says as they remember the
harsh days of Taliban rule in mid 90s.
Another moot
question is why did Afghan National Army (ANA) just crumbled and allowed
Taliban to take over entire country?
The ANA along
with Police forces & Khad (the Afghan Intelligence Agency) consisted of
nearly 4.5 lakh personnel. Against them there were at the most 85,000 odd
ragtag Taliban fighters. In almost every engagement, after the withdrawal of
United States, the Taliban were outnumbered anywhere between five or six to
one, which implies that normally about 200 militants are taking on about a 1000
ANA soldiers.
ANA was supported by air
Force, armoured vehicles, artillery and were designed to combat
terrorism/insurgency.
For this collapse of ANA some reasons are being cited by
Strategic Experts.
A report
prepared by John F Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction
titled, “The state of corruption in Afghanistan and the role of independent
institutions” was mentioned in a webinar event held on June 24, 2020. In this
Webinar instances were cited about how resources were misappropriated and
misused, how this involved American Contractors as well. Corruption in the US
controlled Afghanistan destroyed any credible governance and people suffered
injustices and were often victims of parochialism, ethnic or tribal
preferences. Former President Hamid Karzai and his family were involved right
from the top and as such no organization could ever take root.
Also Drug
production grew under the watch of US & NATO forces from a zero production
to a $ 2.2 Billion Afghan share of the revenue. This in turn threw up a culture
of its own that was highly decentralized and was a law unto itself. In fact,
many of the USA & NATO personal were corrupted by this as well. This broke
down the rule of law. Ashraf Ghani and his relatives posted people of their
liking and who were useful to them and as such every post became questionable,
designed to facilitate illicit trade of narcotics.
International
Security & Assistance Force (IASF)-- that is USA & NATO Forces--used to
give Conduct and Good Behaviour Money to Taliban. They used to pay this money to
be left alone. It actually meant the IASF paid out funds as protection money.
IASF deliberately
used private contractors for Logistic purposes. Most of these contractors were
Taliban sympathizers. It was an indirect way to pay for the protection of goods
along the lines of communication. The Taliban benefited by pocketing some money
as well as some military stores that they could pilferage. It’s no wonder that
Karkhano Bazar in Peshawar and Wesh in Chaman, were stocked with US Military
equipment for sale to anyone willing to pay for it.
The recruitment
of the soldiers in the ANA was open ended and many drug addicts or a street
criminals could enrol. This army lacked in leadership. This happened because of accelerated promotions, poor
selection, corruption and lack of merit.
The training was a missing
factor and the soldiers remained untrained. The ANA was incapable of operating
without supervision and watch over by professional mentors from USA & NATO
Forces. It had a very low morale and was not supported by the people. The ANA
are quick to surrender or join the Taliban, swelling their ranks. This
phenomenon became a source of recruitment, fresh armaments and supplies for the
Taliban and this continued to grow as their offensive expanded. Besides, the
freeing of prisoners by the Taliban made a huge resource available to them from
amongst the grateful inmates.
The sudden Taliban sweep was
because contrary to common belief, the Taliban enjoys a degree of popularity
amongst the common people, particularly in rural areas, compared to ANA.
What will happen now with Taliban in power in Kabul?
The general view
among the Jihadists will be that when divinity is on our side, success is
around the corner. That is how a rag-tag Army with help of God Almighty
defeated the United States and the World and if they could, why can’t we too do
the same? It’s powerful argument and it is
going to unfold in Pakistan before it unfolds in other neighbouring countries.
Pakistan is a
soft country where fundamentalism and extremist thinking comes into play.
Society is already swayed by ideological rhetoric and is susceptible to mob
influence. Government lacks political will to enforce the law and the
administration allows space to such extremists. Today Islamabad is flooded with
madrassahs. The street power of religio-political groups is immense and they
can shut the national communication system and bring life to a standstill. This
can happen as they demand that we too follow in the Taliban style and effectively
Talibanizing Pakistan.
Of course Pakistan has not learnt its lesson is clear from
Prime Minister Imran Khan’s statement that `Afghanistan is freed from slavery’. .
It is likely
that Taliban would not overtly go in for implementing its harsh version of Sharia
laws to gain support from the world, but on the ground restrictions will come
into force covertly through various subtle ways. This would be enough for world
powers to give recognition to Taliban regime and start doing business with it.
China has already expressed hope that Afghanistan would now move on the path of
peace & progress. USA, Britain & other European countries will also
follow suit in next few months.
Events in
Afghanistan have proved again that whenever their strategic interests demands world
powers like USA, Russia, European Countries or for that matter China can easily
sideline India effortlessly.
(The Economist, New York
Times, New York Review of Books, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, The New
Yorker, Business Standard, The Dawn, BBC, Al Jazeera are some of the sources used
for various details in this Post. The views are personal)
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