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Friday, August 27, 2021

Afghanistan: Failure of India's Foreign Policy

 

The inevitable has happened.

In spite of repeated warnings by Western & other Intelligence sources about imminent danger of Suicide Bombers of Islamic State of Khorasan, they ultimately infiltrated the frenzied crowds gathered outside Kabul Airport and blew themselves up.

The attack has killed till now more than 90  people and injured many more hundreds. There were 13 Us soldiers amongst those killed.

International Media has been reporting for at least a week that Taliban having surrounded Kabul Airport, having put Check Point on the roads leading to the Airport, allowing only foreigners having valid travel documents.

If this is a fact then how could ISIS-K Suicide Bombers infiltrate this security ring? Does that mean Taliban was complicit with ISIS—K? Did they want to send a message to the USA or this could happen because of sheer lack of attentiveness on the part of Taliban in the ongoing chaos in Kabul? BBC Correspondent in Kabul had reported two days back that the Taliban fighters manning the Check Points on the road leading to the Airport were not thoroughly checking vehicles or their passengers and sometimes just waiving them through. So it is difficult to ascertain at this stage that how this attack could take place.

Of course we need to look beyond the details of the attack and try to understand the linkages between not only ISIS-K, its ties with various factions in Taliban and the role of Pakistan.

ISIS-K was founded by a Pakistani militant Hafiz Seed Khan in 2014 with a small band of militants from Pakistan. He pledged his allegiance to the ISIS founder Abu-Bakr-al-Baghdadi.  Khan moved to Afghanistan in 2015 and was able to attract some Taliban fighters also. His area of activity in Afghanistan was mainly in its eastern province Nangahar. Khan was killed in US air raid in 2016 and ISIS-K main hideout in Nangahar province was bombed by USA in 2017 in which scores of terrorists were killed. Still United Nations Group on Terrorism estimates that about 1700 to 2200 terrorists of ISIS-K are active and now they are spread across many provinces of Afghanistan.

After Taliban entered Kabul, the city is being policed and manned by Haqqani faction of Taliban, which is controlled by Pakistan. It is intriguing that in spite of Haqqani factions such a widespread presence in Kabul and its fighters manning perimeter of Kabul Airport, how could ISIS-K Suicide Bombers penetrate the security ring? Does this mean that   Pakistan was also indirectly involved in this attack? Is it a way of ISI waning Taliban to fall in line and not to stray from the framework it wants to establish in Afghanistan? Is it a way of warning the Americans that Pakistan has power to create mayhem for USA? On the face of it all these questions may look improbable. But in the intricate web of terrorist world how many moves-countermoves takes place, how momentary alliances are struck for short term gains, how today`s partners become tomorrow`s foes has been described in detail in a recently published book `Spy Stories: Inside The Secret World of RAW & ISI` by two Us Journalist Adrian Levy & Cathy Scott-Clark. Therefore it may not be farfetched to assume the invisible hand of Pakistan in Kabul Airport attack.

Then the question arises is that how should India deal with this fast changing situation in Afghanistan, which is our extended neighborhood. As the Foreign Minister told the meeting of opposition leaders, should we `wait & watch` before doing anything? What are options open for us? Do we have any leverage with any of the factions of Taliban?

To answer these and related questions, we need to consider following points:

The first and foremost point that we need to consider is `what is foreign policy meant for?` The obvious answer Is that `to protect, preserve & enhance India’s interests`.  Then the next point is that `what is the role of diplomacy in a Foreign Policy`? Again the obvious answer is that `to pursue the possibilities to protect, preserve & enhance India’s interest in its immediate neighborhood, extended neighborhood and all across the world`. How do we pursue these possibilities? By establishing relationship based on mutual interests, avoiding conflicts & tensions by sustained creative dialogue and trying to find out spaces for mutual cooperation and develop alliances to ward of threats’. All these things need to be done within a framework of our vision about the world and our position in this world.

Did we practice all these basic tenets of diplomacy while dealing with the crisis in Afghanistan? The answer is big NO. It was crystal clear since 2018 that USA’s `War on Terror` was just an empty slogan and it is taking steps to extricate itself from Afghanistan. For this USA had no compunction to seek the help of Pakistan, when that country has been harboring terrorists. In fact Mulla Baradar with whom US Special Representative Zalmy Khalidzed started negotiating in Qatar’s capital Dohaa since 2018, was captured in a joint operation of CIA & Pak ISI in 2010. USA asked Pakistan to release him to facilitate the negotiations. Pakistan still has not allowed Habitullah Akhundzada, who is a Supreme Religious Leader of Taliban after Mulla Omar’s death, to return to Kabul.  In such a scenario we kept on putting all our eggs in Ashraf Ghani’s basket when USA was trying to strike a deal to abandon Asraf Ghani and hand over power to Taliban. Sher Mohamad Abbas Stanikzai is a prominent Taliban leader in charge of its political wing and head of Taliban’s office in Doha. Stanikzai was trained in India in late 80s at Indian Military Academy (IMA) at Deharadun.  When his name started cropping up in US—Taliban negotiations, Stanikzai’s batch mates in IMA gave interviews to Indian Media stating various experiences of their association with the batch mate. This same Stanikzai had appealed to India not to close its diplomatic mission and offered full protection, but India did not heed the plea. The point to stress is that India had not established contacts with any faction of Taliban. Since 2001 India has made huge contribution to whatever little economic progress that has happened in Afghanistan. Hundreds of Afghan students are studying in Indian educational institutions. Many Afghan soldiers have been and are being trained at Indian Military institutions. There is a tremendous goodwill amongst Afghan people for India. There were inter-faith marriages also. These afghan people felt that India would accommodate them to avoid being repressed by Taliban. This has not happened. India has not allowed any Muslim Afghan nationals to come to India. It has only brought back Hindus and Shikh`s. In fact Mr. Hardeep Singh Puri, a Minister in Modi Cabinet has argued that Citizen Amendment Act (CAA) was enacted to deal with such a situation. The glaring example is that of an Afghan woman Member of Parliament Rangina Kargar, who landed in Delhi from Istanbul and was deported back in spite of having Diplomatic Passport.  When this issue was raised by Leaders of Opposition in a meeting held by Foreign Minister S. Jayashankar, he said that `it happened inadvertently & we have asked her to apply for e—visa’. He did not acknowledge that she has a Diplomatic Passport & India has evacuated two Sikh Women MP’s of Afghanistan to Delhi just a day before Ms. Kargar landed in Delhi.

Here another important point needs to be considered. In last 7 years whenever a meeting of opposition leaders in convened very rarely Prime Minister Modi attends it and takes part in its deliberation. Whether it be Carona Pamdemic or Afghanistan such meetings are addressed by concerned Ministers. Surprisingly, Opposition Leaders also do not insist on presence of PM.  Modi also does not attend Parliament. The Pegasus issue rocked the recent Monsoon Session of Parliament, but Modi did not come to the House.  In fact in last seven years Modi has attended Parliament only for 3.5 hours compared to Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s 77 hours.  This is happening because Modi gives a scant importance to opposition and all democratic institutions. He treats himself above all this and thinks that he has a direct connect with the people, he does not need such meetings or presence in Parliament. Therefore `Man Ki Baat`.

This attitude of PM Modi has also subverted institutionalized Foreign Policy decision making process. A paradigm shift has taken place since 2014 and our Foreign Policy has been `SECURATIZED`. This means all foreign policy issues are being looked from the prism of `National Security` and instead of providing adequate & necessary inputs, the Security Establishment—particularly National Security Advisor—has become a lynchpin of decision making process in Foreign Policy.

This has unavoidably been reflected in our isolation and disconnect in the ongoing Afghan crisis. It is essential to understand that Pakistan is integral to Afghan crisis. We have failed to `pursue the possibilities of creating spaces for cooperation & understanding` with Pakistan in spite of opportunities coming our way in recent months. When Pakistan Media published a report about a speech given by Army Chief General Bajwa in Corps Commanders Meet, saying that `if relations with India improve then there won’t be need of nuclear weapons`. It was a `Possibility` which needed to be `pursued` diligently. This did not happen. Instead Modi Government declared that 14 August—which is Pakistan’s Independence Day-- would now be observed as a Partition Horror Remembrance Day’, for all purposes indicating that henceforth Pakistan would be our eternal enemy..

Ultimately any country’s Foreign Policy is a reflection of its social, cultural & political ethos. Since Independence India has been is multicultural, diverse society with Parliamentary Democracy aspiring to become economically equitable and prosperous country. This has been India’s ethos and that got reflected in our Foreign Policy. For last seven decades we have been known for our `Soft Power`. We have been recognized world over for our functioning democracy, albeit with many flaws. Since 1990s we have embarked on a new economic path in a 21st Century Post Modernist world where Technology is going to be a `Buzz Word`, as `Capital` was in 20th Century. In this 21st Century world, India’s economic strides must deepen & escalate its distinctive democratic process based on multicultural diverse society.

Then only the Comity of Nations would look up to India as a `World Power’.

Unfortunately this distinctive multicultural & diverse base of Indian Democracy is being eroded step by step and `Unity in Diversity` is being replaced by `Cultural & Social Uniformity`

Therefore our isolation in current Afghan Crisis epitomizes Securitization of our Foreign Policy and Weaponization of  our Cultural & Social Ethos for sheer political purposes.

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Tuesday, August 17, 2021

It Was A Deal; Not A Defeat

 

 

 

`This is not a Saigon Moment'.

Thus spoke Mr. Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State of the United States of America reacting to the events that happened at Kabul Airport.

Mr. Blinken is right. It is not a 'Saigon Moment', it is much more than that. 

          USA was resoundingly defeated by Vietnamese in late seventies. When Vietnamese Communist Combatants reached the outskirts of Saigon, the  Capital of the then South Vietnam, there was a huge scramble to board the sorties of Army Helicopters landing on the roof of Us Embassy. The photos of this event were splashed across front pages almost all newspapers & magazines in the world.

 In contrast in Afghanistan USA was not defeated by Taliban. It extricated itself from quagmire of a stalemated war by striking a deal and willingly handed over power to the Taliban. Perhaps the difference is because USA had fought with Vietnamese due to ideological opposition to Communism during the Cold War era, but fight with Taliban or for that matter with Al Queda has never been ideological for USA. If Osama bin Laden had not attacked USA mainland the Americans would have never sent its forces in Afghanistan.

USA has always taken a position that it will react to any event across the world and send its forces, if  it's 'Way of Life' is threatened. This maxim was reiterated by President George bush after the 9/11 attack. Of course besides this aim of protecting `American Way of Life`, USA for strategic reasons dislodged many Governments in Latin America, Asia & Africa; assassinated many leaders, staged coups and took all these actions in the name of `Defending Democracy`. Thousands of innocent people were killed. Today Iran has become a hardline Shia Islamic  theocracy because USA dislodged in early fifties the duly democratically elected Mosadegh Govt for Iranian oil and installed a tyrannical Shah Reza Pehalvi. President Bush invaded Iraq on the completely false pretext of Saddam Hussein having `Weapons of Mass Destruction` and completely destabilized entire West Asia, which gave rise to ISIS and its depredations.

Many more such instances can be cited, but to cot the story short, it must be emphasised that this did not happen in Afghanistan.

 There was a verbal understanding between USA & Taliban at Doha Talks. This deal was brokered by Zalmy Khalidzad from USA and Mulla Baradar from Taliban. This happened during Trump Presidency and it was implemented fully by Biden Administration.

Therefore the talk about `Saigon Moment` & comparison with Vietnam War is irrelevant and totally misplaced. 

The main points of USA—Taliban unwritten understanding were to abandon President Ashraf Ghani, which has already happened. President Ghani has fled to Tajikistan. In fact Soviet diplomats in Kabul told the media that Ghani wanted to carry with him so many cartons of money that they could not fit into the Helicopter and some cartons of cash were left on the tarmac of Kabul Airport. The next part of the understanding was Abdullah Abdullah, who styled himself as CEO of Afghanistan, ceasing to hold office, but would be retained as a negotiator. The Govt system will not be totally upset and the Taliban will except some representation by other ethnic and ideological groups. There will be no fighting for Kabul and that the Taliban will be given access to setup the new government.

All these things have already happened. Mulla Baradar has been appointed as a President and Abdullah Abdullah & former President Hanid Karzai are negotiating with Taliban and other ethnic groups to form an interim administration.

There is no fighting in and around Kabul. Then why people are scared and scrambling to leave Afghanistan, which led to the chaotic scenes at Kabul Airport? This is because no afghan is ready to believe what Taliban says as they remember the harsh days of Taliban rule in mid 90s.

Another moot question is why did Afghan National Army (ANA) just crumbled and allowed Taliban to take over entire country?

The ANA along with Police forces & Khad (the Afghan Intelligence Agency) consisted of nearly 4.5 lakh personnel. Against them there were at the most 85,000 odd ragtag Taliban fighters. In almost every engagement, after the withdrawal of United States, the Taliban were outnumbered anywhere between five or six to one, which implies that normally about 200 militants are taking on about a 1000 ANA soldiers.

ANA was supported by air Force, armoured vehicles, artillery and were designed to combat terrorism/insurgency.

          For this collapse of ANA some reasons are being cited by Strategic Experts.

A report prepared by John F Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction titled, “The state of corruption in Afghanistan and the role of independent institutions” was mentioned in a webinar event held on June 24, 2020. In this Webinar instances were cited about how resources were misappropriated and misused, how this involved American Contractors as well. Corruption in the US controlled Afghanistan destroyed any credible governance and people suffered injustices and were often victims of parochialism, ethnic or tribal preferences. Former President Hamid Karzai and his family were involved right from the top and as such no organization could ever take root.

Also Drug production grew under the watch of US & NATO forces from a zero production to a $ 2.2 Billion Afghan share of the revenue. This in turn threw up a culture of its own that was highly decentralized and was a law unto itself. In fact, many of the USA & NATO personal were corrupted by this as well. This broke down the rule of law. Ashraf Ghani and his relatives posted people of their liking and who were useful to them and as such every post became questionable, designed to facilitate illicit trade of narcotics.

International Security & Assistance Force (IASF)-- that is USA & NATO Forces--used to give Conduct and Good Behaviour Money to Taliban. They used to pay this money to be left alone. It actually meant the IASF paid out funds as protection money.

IASF deliberately used private contractors for Logistic purposes. Most of these contractors were Taliban sympathizers. It was an indirect way to pay for the protection of goods along the lines of communication. The Taliban benefited by pocketing some money as well as some military stores that they could pilferage. It’s no wonder that Karkhano Bazar in Peshawar and Wesh in Chaman, were stocked with US Military equipment for sale to anyone willing to pay for it.

The recruitment of the soldiers in the ANA was open ended and many drug addicts or a street criminals could enrol. This army lacked in leadership. This happened  because of accelerated promotions, poor selection, corruption and lack of merit.

The training was a missing factor and the soldiers remained untrained. The ANA was incapable of operating without supervision and watch over by professional mentors from USA & NATO Forces. It had a very low morale and was not supported by the people. The ANA are quick to surrender or join the Taliban, swelling their ranks. This phenomenon became a source of recruitment, fresh armaments and supplies for the Taliban and this continued to grow as their offensive expanded. Besides, the freeing of prisoners by the Taliban made a huge resource available to them from amongst the grateful inmates.

The sudden Taliban sweep was because contrary to common belief, the Taliban enjoys a degree of popularity amongst the common people, particularly in rural areas, compared to ANA.

          What will happen now with Taliban in power in Kabul?

The general view among the Jihadists will be that when divinity is on our side, success is around the corner. That is how a rag-tag Army with help of God Almighty defeated the United States and the World and if they could, why can’t we too do the same? It’s  powerful argument and it is going to unfold in Pakistan before it unfolds in other  neighbouring countries.

Pakistan is a soft country where fundamentalism and extremist thinking comes into play. Society is already swayed by ideological rhetoric and is susceptible to mob influence. Government lacks political will to enforce the law and the administration allows space to such extremists. Today Islamabad is flooded with madrassahs. The street power of religio-political groups is immense and they can shut the national communication system and bring life to a standstill. This can happen as they demand that we too follow in the Taliban style and effectively Talibanizing Pakistan.

          Of course Pakistan has not learnt its lesson is clear from Prime Minister Imran Khan’s statement that `Afghanistan is freed from slavery’.  .

It is likely that Taliban would not overtly go in for implementing its harsh version of Sharia laws to gain support from the world, but on the ground restrictions will come into force covertly through various subtle ways. This would be enough for world powers to give recognition to Taliban regime and start doing business with it. China has already expressed hope that Afghanistan would now move on the path of peace & progress. USA, Britain & other European countries will also follow suit in next few months.

Events in Afghanistan have proved again that whenever their strategic interests demands world powers like USA, Russia, European Countries or for that matter China can easily sideline India effortlessly.

(The Economist, New York Times, New York Review of Books, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, The New Yorker, Business Standard, The Dawn, BBC, Al Jazeera are some of the sources used for various details in this Post. The views are personal)

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Sunday, August 15, 2021

हिंदूराष्ट्राच्या दिशेनं पुढचं पाऊल!

 

पंतप्रधान मोदी यांच्या तोंडून नथुराम गोडसेच बोलला.

पुढील वर्षापासून १४ ऑगस्ट हा 'फाळणी भयस्मृती दिवस' म्हणून पाळण्याच्या मोदी यांच्या निर्णयाचा हाच खरा अर्थ आहे.

तशी अधिसूचनाच भारत सरकारच्या गृहमंत्रालयानं जारी केली आहे.

अर्थात मोदी यांनी असा निर्णय घेणं, हेही साहजिकच आहे.

...कारण याच मोदी यांनी २०१९ च्या लोकसभा निवडणुकीसाठी गोडसेचा गौरव करणाऱ्या आणि मालेगाव बॉम्बस्फोट खटल्यातील प्रमुख आरोपी असलेल्या साध्वी प्रज्ञा यांना भाजपची उमेदवारी दिली होतीच ना!

याच साध्वी प्रज्ञा यांनी विजयी झाल्यावर वारंवार नथुराम गोडसेचा जयजयकार केला आहे. ना त्याचा कधी मोदी यांनी जाहीर विरोध केला, ना त्यांना पक्षातून काढून टाकलं. मात्र त्याच वेळी गांधीजींच्या  नावाचं पालुपद आळवण्याची एकही संधी मोदी कधीच सोडत नाहीत. परदेशात गेले की,त्यांना गांधींचं नाव घ्यावंच लागतं, तेथे सावरकरांचं नाव घेणं ते कटाक्षानं टाळतात. मात्र प्रत्यक्षात सावरकरांना जो हिंदुत्ववाद अपेक्षित होता, त्याच वाटेनं मोदी यांचा हा प्रवास चालू आहे.

...आणि १४ ऑगस्ट हा 'फाळणी भयस्मृती दिवस' म्हणून पाळण्याचा घेण्यात आलेला निर्णय हे त्याचंच निदर्शक आहे.

याचा अर्थ एकच होतो आणि तो म्हणजे फाळणीची जखम कायम भळभळत ठेवून त्याच्या आधारे मुस्लिम विरोधी राजकारण करून समाजात ध्रुवीकरण घडवून आणून निवडणुका जिंकण्याचा मोदी यांचा उद्देश. अशा या निर्णयाला नजीकचं जे कारण आहे, ते म्हणजे उत्तर प्रदेशात होऊ घातलेल्या विधानसभेच्या निवडणुका.

त्याचबरोबर १४ ऑगस्ट हा पाकिस्तानचा स्वातंत्र्यदिन असतो. तोच दिवस फाळणीची भयस्मृती जागवण्यासाठी वापरण्यामागं यापुढं पाकिस्तान हा भारताचा कायमस्वरूपी शत्रू राहील, हे दाखवून देण्याचाच उद्देश आहे.

अर्थात हा निर्णय घेताना मोदी यांनी नेहमीप्रमाणंच शब्दांचा खेळ केला आह आणि तो नेहमीप्रमाणंच निरर्थकही आहे. या संदर्भात 'इंडियन एक्स्प्रेस' या इंग्रजी वृत्तपत्राला सरकारी सूत्रांनी  सांगितले की, हिटलरनं ज्यूंच्या केलेल्या नरसंहाराच्या जशा स्मृती इस्त्रायलमध्ये जागवल्या जातात किंवा बागलादेश होण्याआधी पाकिस्ताननं जो नरसंहार घडवून आणला, त्याच्या स्मृती जशा बांगलादेश जागवतो, त्याचप्रमाणे फाळणीच्याही स्मृती जागवणं, हे आवश्यक आहेम्हणूनच हा निर्णय घेण्यात आला आहे.

इस्त्रायल हे ज्यू धर्मीयांसाठीचं राष्ट्र आहे आणि बांगलादेश हे इस्लामी राष्ट्र आहे. मात्र भारत हा बहुसंख्य हिंदूंचा देश असूनही स्वातंत्र्यानंतर आपण जाणीवपूर्वक धर्मनिरपेक्ष राज्यघटना स्वीकारली. ही गोष्ट अर्थातच राष्ट्रीय स्वयंसेवक संघाला मान्य नव्हती आणि तसं गोळवलकर यांनी लिहूनच ठेवलेलंच आहे. भारतीय राज्यघटना ही गोधडी असून ती फेकून दिली पाहिजे, असं गोळवलकर यांचं मत होतं.

एवढंच कशाला डिसेंबर १९४७ साली केलेल्या एका भाषणात गोळवलकर म्हणाले होते की, महात्मा गांधी यापुढं आमची दिशाभूल करू शकणार नाहीत. अशी दिशाभूल करणा-या व्यक्तींना ताबडतोब गप्प करण्याची क्षमता आमच्यात आहे. पण आमची परंपरा ही हिंदू विरोधी नाही. मात्र तशी वेळ आमत्यावर आणली गेली, तर त्या मार्गाताही अवलंब आम्ही करू (द टेलिग्राफ या दैनिकातील रामचंद्रगुहा यांच्या लेखातील अवतरण)

हाच मार्ग नथुरामनं नंतर अवलंबला आणि गांधीजींची हत्या केली.

...कारण त्यांनी मुस्लिमांचं तुष्टीकरण (खास संघाचा शब्द) केलं आणि त्यामुळं फाळणा झाली.

याच फाळणीच्या भयस्मृतीजागवण्याचा निर्णय आता मोदी यांनी घेतला आहे आणि त्याच्याच सरकारतर्फे याची तुलना इस्त्रायल व बांगलादेशाशी केली जात आहे.

मात्र दूरदृष्टी असलेला एखादा नेता आपल्यावर झालेला अन्याय विसरून देशाला सामाजिक एकोप्याच्या मार्गावर कसा घेऊन जातो, याचं विसाव्या शतकातील उदाहरण म्हणजे दक्षिण आफ्रिकेचे नेते नेल्सन मंडेला. स्वतः मंडेला हे २५ वर्ष रॉबिन आयलंडच्या तुरुंगात होते. या तुरूंगातून कैदी क्वचितच जिवंत बाहेर पडतात, अशी त्याची ख्याती होती.  तुरूंगवासातील २५ पैकी १५ वर्षे त्यांनी एकांतवासात काढली होती. त्यांनी कधीही गौरवर्णीय सरकारकडं माफी मागितली नव्हती, याचा येथे मुद्दामच उल्लेख करणं आवश्यक आहे. मात्र जागतिक परिस्थिती बदलल्यावर जेव्हा दक्षिण आफ्रिकेतील गौरवर्णीय सत्ताधाऱ्यांनी मंडेला यांच्याशी चर्चा सुरू केली, तेव्हा त्यांनी एकांगी भूमिका घेण्याचं कटाक्षानं टाळलं.

दक्षिण आफ्रिकेतील वर्णविद्वेषी सरकार जाऊन मंडेला यांच्या हाती सत्ता आल्यावर त्यांनी  समाजात पुन्हा एकोपा निर्माण व्हावा, गौरवर्णीय आणि कृष्णवर्णीय यांच्यातील ताणतणाव दूर व्हावा, कृष्णवर्णीयांचं वर्चस्व प्रस्थापित होऊ नये, म्हणून Truth and Reconciliation Commission नेमून  एक सामाजिक विरेचन घडवून आणलं होतं. डेस्मॉंड टुटू या नोबेल पारितोषिक विजेत्या धर्मोपदेशकाच्या  नेतृत्वाखाली नेमण्यात आलेल्या या आयोगापुढं गौरवर्णीय आणि कृष्णवर्णीय समाजातील अनेकांच्या साक्षी होऊन वर्णविद्वेषी राजवटीच्या काळात घडलेल्या अन्यायाच्या घटनांबद्दलच्या  -या खोट्याचा निवाडा केला गेला. त्यात खुद्द मंडेला यांच्या पत्नी विनी यांनाही शिक्षा भोगावी लागली. मंडेला यांच्या या प्रयत्नामुळं जे सामाजिक विरेचन घडून आलं, त्यांनं कृष्णवर्णीय सरकार येऊनही दक्षिण आफ्रिकेत सामाजिक उलथापालथ झाली नाही. मात्र दक्षिण आफ्रिकेच्या शेजारच्या पूर्वाश्रमीच्या -होडेशिया किंवा आत्ताच्या झिंब्बाबेमध्य हे झालं नाही आणि आज तो देश आर्थिक व सामाजिकदृष्ट्या रसातळाला गेला आहे. एवढंच कशाला, नेल्सन मंडेला यांच्यानंतर सत्तेवर आलेले एक दोघं राज्यकर्ते सोडता, विद्यमान सत्ताधाऱ्यांनी जी नीती अवलंबली आहे, त्यानं आज दक्षिण आफ्रिकेत सामाजिक विद्वेषाचा आगडोंब उसळला आहे.

अर्थात 'गाढवापुढं वाचली गीता' या म्हणीप्रमाणं मोदी किंवा राष्ट्रीय स्वयंसेवक संघ यांच्यापुढं मंडेला यांचं उदाहरण ठेवणं हे निरर्थकच आहे.

बहुसंख्यांचा वर्चस्ववाद असलेली समाजव्यवस्था प्रस्थापित करणं आणि त्यासाठी सत्ता काबीज करून ती या उद्दिष्टासाठी राबवणं, हे संघाचं गेल्या नऊ दशकांतील धोरण राहिलं आहे. या उद्दिष्टापर्यंत संघ आज कसा पोचू शकला, याचा विचार करताना गेल्या ७५ वर्षांतील घटनांकडंही नि:पक्षपाती व निरपेक्ष दृष्टीनं बघण्याची नितांत गरज आहे.

साधारणत: असं मानलं जात आलं आहे की, राजीव गांधी यांनी मुस्लिम महिला विधेयक संसदेत संमत करून घेऊन शहाबानू खटल्यातील सर्वोच्च न्यायालयाचा निर्णय निष्प्रभ ठरवला, त्यामुळं संघाला समाजात दुही निर्माण करण्याची मोठी संधी मिळाली. ही संधी साधून संघानं सत्तेपर्यंत वाटचाल केली आणि २०१४ साली मोदी यांना पंतप्रधानपदी बसवलं. या संदर्भात खरं तर नेहरू काळाकडंही एक दृष्टीक्षेप टाकणं गरजेचं आहे.

 वादाच्या भोवऱ्यात अडकूनही टप्प्याटप्प्यानं का होईना, पण हिंदू कोड बिल नेहरू काळात संमत झालं. मात्र याच पद्धतीनं मुस्लिम व्यक्तिगत कायद्याचं 'कोडिफिकेशन' करण्याची पावलं नेहरू काळात पडली नाहीत. उलट मुस्लिम व्यक्तिगत कायदा ही त्या समाजाच्या अखत्यारीतील बाब आहे आणि या समाजाच्या संमतीविना त्यात ढवळाढवळ करता कामा नये, असा एक राजकीय दृष्टिकोन नेहरू काळात प्रबळ होता. त्यामुळं मुस्लीम समाजातील सामाजिक सुधारणांना खीळ बसत गेली आणि समाजावर मुल्ला- मौलवींची पकड घट्ट बसत गेली. सत्तेचं राजकारण जसं अधिकाधिक स्पर्धाशील बनत गेलं, तशी एकगठ्ठा मतांची बेगमी करणं, याला राजकारणात महत्त्व  मिळू लागलं. येथे आणखी एक गोष्ट लक्षात घेण्याची गरज आहे. भारतात बहुसंख्य असलेल्या हिंदू समाजाच्या नेणिवेत मुस्लिम आक्रमकांच्या अत्याचारांच्या आठवणी आहेत आणि त्या पिढ्यानपिढ्या साचत आलेल्या आहेत. स्वतंत्र भारतात सर्वांना समान अधिकार व हक्क देणारी राज्यघटना बनवण्यात आली. सर्वांना समान कायदा आणि कायद्यासमोर सर्वजण समान, हे तत्व असलेली न्यायव्यवस्थाही अस्तित्वात आली. मात्र मुस्लिम व्यक्तिगत कायद्यात ढवळाढवळ न करण्याच्या धोरणाचे पडसाद बहुसंख्य असलेल्या हिंदूंच्या नेणिवेत कोठं ना कोठं तरी उमटतच राहिले होते. याची दखल सत्तेच्या राजकारणाच्या स्पर्धेत गुंग असलेल्या बिगर हिंदुत्ववादी पक्ष, संघटना व गट यांनी घेतली नाही.

उलट मुस्लिमांचा अनुनय केला जात असून, त्यामुळं हिंदू समाजावर कसा अन्याय होत आहे, हा मुद्दा घेऊन राष्ट्रीय स्वयंसेवक संघ अथकपणं समाजात प्रचार करत राहिला. शहाबानू प्रकरणानंतर संघाच्या या प्रचाराला जोर आला आणि त्याचबरोबर बहुसंख्य असलेल्या हिंदू समाजाच्या नेणिवेत साचलेल्या मुस्लिम आक्रमकांच्या अत्याचाराच्या आठवणीही जाग्या होत गेल्या. 

जर नेहरू काळात हिंदू कोड विलाप्रमाणं मुस्लम व्यक्तिगत कायद्याचंही कोडिफिकेशन झालं असतं, तर समान नागरी कायदा, तिहेरी तलाक,फाळणी इत्यादी मुद्दे निकालीच निघाले असते आणि संघाचा प्रचारही बोथट होत गेला असता.

मात्र नेहरू काळात ही गफलत झाली आणि नंतर राजीव गांधी यांच्या कारकिर्दीत त्याचीच पुढची पायरी गाठळी गेली. त्याचा फायदा संघ उठवत गेला आणि त्याच्या हाती आता देशाती सत्ता आली आहे. संघानं विद्वेषाचं विष आता समाजमनात पुरं भिनवलं आहे.

ते तसंच भिनलेलं राहावं व हिंदूराष्ट्राच्या प्रस्थापनेच्या दिशेनं पुढचं पाऊल पडावं, यासाठी फाळणी भयस्मृती दिवसाचं नवं गारूड मोदी व संघानं आता उभं केलं आहे.

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